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2018 hurricane season predicted to be 'slightly above-average,' forecasters say

06 April 2018

This year's hurricane season is shaping to be another big one with a greater than 60% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US coastline, according to a new forecast from top meteorologists.

Forecasters expect a slightly above-average season, with 14 named storms.

Starting in 1953, the National Hurricane Center originally named all tropical storms.

"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted", the CSU report said Thursday.

The forecast also calls for 70 days during which a named storm will be present, 30 hurricane days and seven major hurricane days.

Long Island was pretty much spared previous year - which marked the fifth anniversary of superstorm Sandy - though areas of the South Shore and East End in September did experience high surf, coastal flooding and dune erosion from what had been Hurricane Jose, which lingered for days just to the southeast.

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"It's important to remember the number of storms and impacts don't really correlate", said Marthers.

"The current weak La Nina event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO [El Nino-Southern Oscillation] over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Nino event this summer/fall", the CSU team said in an extended range forecast. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and the far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Researchers believe there is a 39 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast, according to the forecast.

Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State research scientist and the forecast lead author, told the Times that Atlantic waters have started the year colder than normal but have significantly warmed in the spring and summer.

The probability for a hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is put at 52%, above the 42% long-term average.

The state of Florida is still recovering from the devastation of Hurricanes Irma and Maria last season.

"The conditions just don't look as strong as what they were past year".

2018 hurricane season predicted to be 'slightly above-average,' forecasters say