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Bearish Case for Oil Prices Gets Stronger, Supply Surges

02 March 2018

So far in February 2018, US crude oil production has topped 10 million bpd in each of the three previous weeks, EIA data shows.

With concerns of current supply shortages from the Libyan Elephant (El-Feel) oil field largely priced in, market focus shifted to the upcoming release of weekly USA inventory data later by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration.

Strength in the dollar also weighed on crude prices as a rising greenback diminished the appeal of commodities priced in the United States currency.

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery added 25 cents to $63.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 1:09 p.m.in Singapore.

"The recent rise in global benchmark prices has not been matched by higher prices for Western Canadian producers". Equities markets weakened on Wednesday, while the US dollar.DXY hit a one-month high.

Soaring U.S. production has pressured oil futures at a time when OPEC members and Russian Federation have reduced their output in an attempt to support prices.

The prices of oil remained sturdy for three consecutive weeks in Saudi Arabia.

Oil prices extended gains to hit their highest level in almost three weeks on Monday, supported by comments from Saudi Arabia that it would continue to curb exports in line with the OPEC-led effort to cut global supplies.

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The lower freight costs afforded by the economies of scale of the VLCC cargo opens up the global market for US-produced crude oil.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. production will average 10.6 million bpd this year.

"The standoff "shale versus sheikh" continues to frame the oil market, with the former again gaining the upper hand", said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Julius Baer. In November 2017, crude oil production was 10.03 million barrels a day.

Just a few years ago, hardly anyone expected that that the US would be competing with the world's top oil producers for the number 1 spot.

As U.S. exports continue to rise, the price gap between WTI and Brent has sharply narrowed.

"We've got a lot more oil to produce and we'll be through that 11 million barrel-per-day threshold much sooner than expected", said Streible.

US crude exports are rising with output.

Arab News quoted Mazrouei as saying that cooperation between oil producers including Russian Federation had reached levels that were "more than expected".

Bearish Case for Oil Prices Gets Stronger, Supply Surges